Prediction, A Review

In which I compare my thoughts from 2007 to what really happened

I spent part of the day revisiting some of my writings and blog posts from the “aughts” and came across a prediction I made from January, 2007, on the occasion of Bill Gates’ announced retirement from Microsoft.

Predicting technology trends is a fool's game, even for people who live and breathe technology. Because of Gates’ retirement, I made the prediction that Microsoft would lose relevance over the next few years, and that by "2010 or 2011" the percentage of computing devices running Microsoft operating systems (basically Windows) would go from 95% to less than 50%. My reasoning was that new platforms were coming up that did not rely on Windows or Microsoft, such as the BlackBerry, iPhone, Linux-based devices, and Intel-based Macs, and that these devices would eat into Microsoft's share.

I was right overall, except for the timing. Microsoft's share did end up going below 50%, but it happened in 2015, not 2010 or ‘11. I was wise enough not to predict which system would take over, which was a good thing, because the Operating System that eventually dethroned Microsoft was not around in January '07. Google Android was released in November '07. Apple’s share grew, too. Today, Apple’s iOS and MacOS are a combined 23%.

Microsoft is still formidable, of course. Its Microsoft 365 product suite (Word, Excel, etc.) is still required in business, and its move to a cloud- and subscription-based package from licensed desktop-installed software was well executed. It is doing very well with its Azure cloud service. And CEO Satya Nadella is an inspired leader. Microsoft is a better company now than it was in ‘07.

What Microsoft is not is a monopoly. These days, people are talking about breaking up Facebook, or Google, or Amazon, or even Apple in some areas. Microsoft is no longer on the monopoly radar. Which is a good thing.

Steve Jobs had announced the iPhone the same month I wrote the post, fourteen years ago. In the overall scheme of things, fourteen years is not a lot of time, even in the tech world. In 2008, Telsa released its first car and Barack Obama was elected president. The Supreme Court affirmed gay marriage in 2013. Twitter was a year old and no one knew what it was for.

We love dystopian novels - The Hunger Games was published in 2008 - but I don’t believe the future will be dystopian. In the early ‘90s, my father gave me a book called “Bankruptcy 1995!” which predicted carnage because of the National Debt, and I had friends who were survivalists (forerunner to “preppers”) back in the early ‘80s. Yet here we are. The future is uncertain, and with uncertainty comes fear, but this little review of the last fourteen years reminded me that overall, things progress, although not exactly in the ways we foresee.

One of my favorite characters in the TV show “The Rockford Files” is a character named “Lance White,” played by Tom Selleck. Whereas Rockford always had mixed luck when working his cases - Angel would undercut him somehow, or some bad guy would sucker punch him or get his car towed - things always went right for Lance White. Things would always magically fall into place, and he would say to Rockford, “don’t worry Jim, things will work out. They always do.”

And so they will. But not always the way we think.

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